UK Says Russia Lacks Capability to Exploit Avdiivka Capture — for Now

The Russian military lacks the combat capability to take full advantage of its seizure of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, a recent UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) intelligence report claims.

On February 17, Moscow announced that it had taken full control of the city after months of heavy fighting with massive combat losses.

The capture has allowed the invading forces to take control of a coke plant situated north of the city, according to the report.

The UK MoD noted that while Russia was able to make some major gains in Ukraine, it will need a few weeks of rest and refit to fully exploit the capture of Adviivka.

Once its combat capability is restored, Moscow is expected to seek to gradually extend its territorial control beyond the captured Ukrainian territory.

No More Cities in 2024

Following Russia’s success in capturing Avdiivka, its military will reportedly push forward to conquer two more eastern Ukrainian cities: Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

However, Ukraine military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told Wall Street Journal that he believes Moscow does not have the strength to capture the two cities this year.

He claimed that the Russian Armed Forces also face mobilization problems because many of its soldiers and assets were neutralized in previous advances.

In October 2023, Forbes reported that Moscow had lost 34 tanks within 24 hours as it attempted to capture Avdiivka. These tanks included T-62s, T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s.

Budanov also said the Russian defense industry is unable to produce as many shells as the military is using every day.

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